Re: Question about Statistical Forecast

hi Jonathan,

Yes you must create 3 different forecast profiles and execute those before you can get the forecast number you require. I know this is not ideal for your situation. Good news is input keyfigure for all of those is going to be same : ACTUALSQTY @  PERPRODCUST.

>>>>>

You wrote that you can define 3 different output key figures (FCST_AGG, MOVINGAVG_AGG and MOVINGAVG_AGG) and then calculate FCST_DISAGG=FCST_AGG*(MOVINGAVG_DISAGG/MOVINGAVG_AGG). However, I don't get your idea: Do you calculate three different forecasts for the three output key figures?

>>

<RAM>Yes</RAM>

>>>If yes, what are the respective input key figures and which forecasting methods/profiles do you use? Does this mean that you have to run three different forecasts instead of one every time you want to forecast?

>>>

<RAM>

You are right, this is a bit round about. Like I said you need three forecast profiles all of them using same input key figure ACTUALSQTY @ PERPRODCUST:

1) Forecast method, <Any you desire>, output keyfigure: FCST_AGG, plan level
PERPRODCHAN

2) Forecast method, Moving average, output keyfigure: MOVINGAVG_AGG,

plan level

PERPRODCHAN

3) Forecast method, Moving average, output keyfigure: MOVINGAVG_DISAGG,

plan level

PERPRODCCUST

 

</RAM>

I hope this answers your question. Essentially you are using moving average ratios as driver for disaggregating from PERPRODCHAN level to PERPRODCUST level.

Kind regards, Ram